ChemInsight 360

The marginal increment brought by Kazakhstan's export ban removal, 132,000 tonnes via the restarted sea corridor, is not yet sufficient to offset the supply gap caused by the continued restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz. Market logic has shifted from “price games” to “logistics feasibility” - the rise of Canadian alternative supply is reshaping trade patterns, but price declines still await a substantive resolution of shipping route risks.

India's agrochemical market is not in one cycle; it is in several at once. Our channel checks with domestic manufacturers over the past fortnight returned readings that, taken at face value, contradict each other: one integrated assessment places domestic demand roughly 10–12% below last year, while a senior channel voice rates the current market a 9 out of 10, describing a slow H1 that has now "gained pace." Both are defensible. The market has bifurcated by molecule, by crop, by inventory position, and by company size and averages are now the least useful number in the sector.

July exports fell sharply and below expectations. China exported 216.2 kt of PVC powder in July 2026 — down 28.5% month-on-month and 34.6% year-on-year.The year-to-date base remains strong. January–July cumulative exports reached 2.60 million tonnes, still up 13.7% year-on-year.India flows collapsed. Shipments to India were just 34.5 kt in July — 15.96% of total exports versus a 37.88% share over January–June; though India remained the single largest destination.

*Titanium-chain products in China spent H1 2026 being whipsawed by the cost side, and price trends diverged sharply. End-use demand showed no material recovery even as titanium product supply kept

expanding, leaving the industry squeezed from both ends. Cost-push dynamics handed titanium dioxide a rare, strong rally with a sizeable cumulative gain in H1 while the titanium feedstock market stayed locked in a weak configuration, dragged by relentless price-pressing from downstream buyers, with ore prices sliding to multi-year lows.*

The near-term trading logic in international crude remains unchanged. On the upside: Israel has still not committed to a complete ceasefire, and several Middle Eastern producers will need time to restore crude output. On the downside: the US–Iran situation is easing, the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal navigation, demand remains weak, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are building. With Washington and Tehran continuing to send constructive signals on follow-up talks, the global supply gap keeps repairing — the bias in international oil prices stays to the downside.

Key chemical commodities and their prices from China.

PVC (polyvinyl chloride) is the most policy-sensitive bulk resin in the world because it is made two completely different ways. China — half the planet’s capacity — runs predominantly on coal via calcium carbide, while the marginal new tonne globally is built on oil-derived ethylene. In 2026 those two routes have been pulled in opposite directions at the same time, and that is the entire story of the sector right now.

Asia’s petrochemical basket repriced lower in near-perfect synchrony last week, and the cause sat upstream of any single product. With the Iran–US shipping agreement taking effect, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil deflated and as crude and naphtha gave way, the cost floor under the entire complex went with them.

We were first to flag the R32 bull across Q4 CY25–Q1/Q2 CY26 on Chinese price discipline and tight export volumes — Navin Fluorine was the standout beneficiary. This note shows the floor under the correction, and the next leg up.