AJC Weekly Brief

The holiday moved the chlorine side, not the fluorine side. Chloroform jumped RMB 212/t to 2,396 and DCM RMB 109/t to 2,879 on the first day back, riding methanol (+307 to 3,884) and liquid chlorine (+60 to 227). Fluorspar, AHF and every refrigerant re-opened exactly where they closed on 29 September.

China's suspension grade PVC price is still low, at RMB 4,900–5,100/MT. Carbide-route producers lose more than RMB 700 on every tonne. Inventory is above one million tonnes. The operating rate has fallen to 66.74%. The property market, which drives 60–65% of demand, is falling faster than in 2025. Exports were the only way out, growing 13.3% up to August. Now that way is getting narrower. The European Commission has opened an anti-dumping investigation into PVC from China, Taiwan, Mexico and Korea. This comes after India's CPVC anti-circumvention probe (September). The oversupply is a cycle, not the end of the industry. But the exit routes are closing.

A special Golden Week edition: Europe’s big petrochemical companies hand over 10.5 million tonnes of capacity to new owners, Lotte stops its PET recycling project in Korea, and Borealis adds new XLPE capacity in the UAE for power cables and the energy transition.

Lithium salts down a uniform RMB 2,000/t. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at RMB 116,000–122,000/t (–1.65%), battery-grade at 119,000–125,000/t (–1.61%); lithium hydroxide fell hardest in percentage terms (industrial –1.96%). LiPF6 held at RMB 120,000/t and lithium metal was unchanged.

The aromatics chain is the story of the week. Pure benzene surged 4.8% to CNY 10,390/t (≈USD 1,535/t) through the 10,000 mark and up more than a quarter since late August; pulling styrene +3.8% to CNY 10,415/t, toluene +3.8%, isomer xylene +2.6% and solvent xylene +1.5% with it. Crude firmness, thin port stocks and pre-holiday restocking ahead of Golden Week have converged.

Daily movers board for China chemical, energy and polymer markets as on 16 September 2026: ranked by day-on-day percentage change, with regional price basis. Green ▲ = price increase | Red ▼ = price decrease. USD values converted at USD/CNY 6.71 (16 Sep 2026); CFR quotes are already USD-denominated.

China PVC powder weekly: wide-range fluctuation, higher average, prices expected to hold at elevated levels.

PVC rallied and then reversed last week, and the main contract is still hovering at elevated levels. The core driver of the recent advance was the geopolitical premium from escalating Middle East tension, which has kept volatility across the energy-and-chemicals complex high. But persistently high energy prices are lifting inflation expectations; the latest US inflation print raised market odds of a Fed hike next week and commodity sentiment turned weaker. On top of that, coal prices rolled over in the second half of the week, loosening cost support, and the main contract came under pressure.

PVC2701 closed at ¥4,791/t, up ¥213 (+6%): a sealed limit-up. The East China basis widened to –¥178/t (–25) as futures outran physical, while South China flipped to a positive ¥42/t (–15). Carbide-route spot chased the move: East China at ¥4,400/t (+80) and South China at ¥4,620/t (+90); ethylene-route material held at ¥5,050/t East and ¥5,100/t South. The macro spark: the Strait of Hormuz situation escalated: reports of channel blockade layered with talk of US military action against Iran, sending crude higher. Ethylene CFR China firmed to around US$1,050/t. Carbide told a choppier story: Wuhai mainstream trade prices rose to ¥2,550/t, then some majors quickly cut ¥50 back to ¥2,500/t.