AJC Weekly Brief

China sulphur breaks below CNY 8,000 and the story is demand, not supply; acid absorption is failing to carry sulphur’s cost while India resets the DAP clearing anchor into the low-$900s cashequivalent, urea rebounds post-tender against a 4.5-million-tonne export pipeline, and September MAP/DAP/NPK reopening rumours remain exactly that: rumours without customs evidence.

*Daily China ex-works price monitor across energy, rubber, plastics and bulk chemical feedstocks: 20 vs 21 August 2026, with day,

week and month percentage moves. Green ▲ = price increase | Red ▼ = price decrease. USD values*

* converted at USD/CNY

6.72 (21 Aug 2026)*

PVC is one of the world's most widely used plastics: it goes into pipes, window frames, cables, flooring and packaging. China is the world's largest producer, so what happens there shapes prices everywhere, including India. This brief explains, in plain language, where the Chinese PVC market stands right now.

SHANGHAI: Chinese PVC ended the week going precisely nowhere; the main contract settled at RMB 4,498/t, down 9, still boxed inside a narrow consolidation band while everything beneath the surface moved. Operating rates jumped nearly two points as carbide-route inspections wound down, plant inventories built, downstream starts sagged to seasonal lows, and export contracting fell 13% into a monsoon-muted India. Producers are losing RMB 700/t on both routes and shipping abroad at a loss of $4/t.

A week after India set its $766 minimum import price, export orders at Chinese PVC producers have dropped 46%. At the same time, Chinese plants are making more PVC than ever with fewer places to sell it.

The rally cools but doesn’t crack; naphtha (+4.9%) and ethylene (+3.8%) extend gains while benzene prints its first weekly decline in three weeks as Europe supplies the structural storyline: the Rhine runs too low for Germany’s crackers, Versalis mothballs Brindisi PE, and Indovinya ties up with Air Liquide on lowcarbon ethylene oxide. 

Chinese producers are selling at a cash loss into record inventory and New Delhi has just drawn a $766/tonne line under the cheapest of those cargoes.

This week's fertiliser market was driven less by simple supply–demand changes and more by execution risk. The Middle East situation has become more complex, with Hormuz and Bab el- Mandeb risks feeding directly into freight, insurance and cargo-execution costs. A sharp decline in Hormuz transits and weaker shipowner confidence are reported, and alternative routes can add around a month at sea while materially raising voyage costs. For fertiliser markets, freight is now one of the fastest-moving indicators — especially for sulphur, ammonia, urea and downstream phosphates.

Lithium carbonate futures in Guangzhou have fallen to a five-month low; not because demand cracked, but because the price rally itself summoned the supply back. Jianxiawo is pouring again, Australia is reopening pits, and Beijing is preparing to tax the very boom that kept prices up.